Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 21.883311 23.768990 25.799817 28.159382 30.837902 33.798674 37.339288
2025-12-21 19.313673 21.982328 25.058882 28.909105 33.657864 39.403806 47.010316
2025-12-28 16.969893 19.991711 23.658038 28.520055 34.935324 43.319687 55.483604
2026-01-04 15.366162 18.613258 22.721477 28.443048 36.451859 47.680958 65.468004
2026-01-11 14.243008 17.665941 22.155763 28.685637 38.331731 52.786804 77.773325
2026-01-18 13.171368 16.648073 21.343073 28.419660 39.361397 56.742190 89.292823
2026-01-25 12.328558 15.843272 20.713602 28.295216 40.523206 61.057753 102.712342
2026-02-01 11.643386 15.186475 20.211772 28.269967 41.791993 65.753629 118.443874
2026-02-08 11.026165 14.569187 19.698481 28.144429 42.839198 70.226387 135.404423
2026-02-15 10.478222 14.006600 19.209795 27.987243 43.781083 74.668525 154.199568
2026-02-22 9.985554 13.488027 18.740031 27.798643 44.618117 79.062274 175.006084
2026-03-01 9.578997 13.069446 18.388745 27.765121 45.727591 84.284338 201.080057
2026-03-08 9.173342 12.637467 17.999888 27.655666 46.738164 89.713799 232.110175
2026-03-15 8.994604 12.545323 18.153627 28.536651 49.923838 101.366815 295.560590
2026-03-22 8.606375 12.099026 17.687518 28.222717 50.527355 106.642760 339.482191
2026-03-29 8.298513 11.762685 17.381310 28.178014 51.720449 113.954561 402.201898
2026-04-05 8.065430 11.532774 17.238613 28.431877 53.641920 124.110965 496.694637
2026-04-12 7.768227 11.181202 16.859441 28.175793 54.310837 130.686069 582.579560
2026-04-19 7.514091 10.887456 16.562371 28.055855 55.298402 138.750951 699.434008
2026-04-26 7.292144 10.635937 16.323802 28.032279 56.531289 148.255130 859.381288
2026-05-03 7.070904 10.374621 16.050726 27.908862 57.486856 157.232219 1052.116911
2026-05-10 6.859650 10.120367 15.775074 27.753825 58.337164 166.280566 1296.228703
2026-05-17 6.657400 9.872488 15.496758 27.567583 59.076388 175.329114 1607.931282